50 RSVPs and a hard cap of 100 — Sharathon scarcity math

The setup

Sharathon — May 16, 10am-2pm at The Template in Ocean Beach. Free event. Co-hosted with my partner. The umbrella event for the whole SD AI Studio brand.

As of today (May 8), Luma shows 48 RSVPs. The cap on Luma is intentionally set to 50 — that's the scarcity gate.

The cap math

Real cap is 100, not 50. Here's why I haven't bumped it yet.

Insurance contract specifies 40 attendees per on-site staff. We have 2 staff May 16. Math: 40 × 2 = 80 attendee target, hard cap 100.

The juice production team confirmed they can handle 80 units in their typical batch — pushing past 80 means a second batch run, more cost, more variables.

So the operational cap is 80. The hard insurance cap is 100. The Luma cap of 50 is a scarcity wedge.

The bump pattern

When Luma fills:

1. At 48-50 RSVPs, do nothing. Let it fill.
2. When it hits 50, bump to 60. Announce in newsletter: "Cap bumped — 10 more spots."
3. When 60 fills, bump to 70. Same.
4. When 70 fills, bump to 80. Stop.

Each bump is a content moment. Each content moment is signal that "this thing is real, people are coming." Scarcity that resolves into "we made room for you" lands different from scarcity that just disappears.

What I'd do differently

I'd run this exact math but document it from day one. Right now I'm reverse-engineering the policy from gut decisions. The next event I run will have the bump policy in the calendar invite.

What you can steal

If you're running an event and trying to grow attendance:

1. Set a real operational cap based on staff and supply.
2. Set a Luma cap below the operational cap.
3. Bump in tranches as it fills, with a public announcement each time.
4. Stop at the operational cap.

The trap is bumping silently — it tells the audience "your RSVP didn't matter." Bumping with announcement tells them "your RSVP made the room bigger."

That's not just better marketing. It's a more accurate description of what's happening.